Mrs. Ellen Luke, Acting Manager Forecast at VGMD.


The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards Department (VMGD) disclosed yesterday afternoon that their weather analysis has identified the emergence of a low-pressure system to the northeast of Vanuatu.

While the potential for a Tropical Cyclone (TC) within the Vanuatu Area of Responsibility (AoR) remained low as of yesterday, VMGD said this trend will continue over the next few days, with only a 10% to 30% chance of cyclone development for each day through Sunday.

However, Monday marks a shift in this weather forecast, as the likelihood of a cyclone is expected to transition from low to moderate, carrying a 40% to 60% chance of cyclone formation.

Mrs. Ellen Luke, Acting Manager Forecast at VGMD, acknowledged that even though it’s not yet within the official cyclone season (November 2023 — April 2024), cyclones can still develop outside the season, particularly one month before and after, if the necessary conditions align.

She added that the Department will continue to keep a close monitoring of the weather charts, closely monitoring these low-pressure developments and will provide ongoing updates on their progress.