communities-urged-to-stay-alert-as-cyclone-season-approaches

 

The Acting Director of Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department (VMGD), Fred Jockley, has urged communities to stay vigilant, be prepared and take heed of correct information and warnings as the 2024/2025 Tropical Cyclone (TC) season approaches.

“People are advised that from experience it does not take a direct hit or severe TC to cause considerable damage or life-threatening weather. In the past, tropical disturbances and depressions have caused significant damage in Vanuatu,” he said.

Vanuatu is expected to experience two to four named TCs during the upcoming season, which runs from early next month until April 30th of next year. At least one of them is expected to reach category 3 or higher.

While most cyclones typically occur from January and March, they can also form outside this period, as seen with TC Donna in 2017, TC Lola last year and TC Liua in 2018.

Acting Director Jockley said the TC risk for Vanuatu is considered “normal”, indicating that the predicted number of cyclones for this season falls within the average annual occurrence.

“Currently, (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are neutral; however, climate models suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are likely to exceed the La Niña threshold from October to November. Should a La Niña develop in the coming months, it is forecast to be relatively weak and short-lived, with all models indicating a return to ENSO neutral conditions by February,” he said.

“Thus, Vanuatu could expect average to slightly above average rainfall conditions for the next 3 to 6 months.

“Air temperatures are also very likely to be above normal.

“Sea level is expected to higher than normal until February but forecast to be below normal from March.

“With expected neutral ENSO conditions/weak La Niña-like conditions and average risk for TCs, there is still possibility for flooding and extreme winds that can cause damages to different sectors and impact the socioeconomic livelihoods of the people.

“Low pressure systems that do not reach cyclone intensity may also cause widespread and extensive damages.”

Communities are reminded to be well-prepared, as only one event can cause lots of damage and claim lives.

The government, through the National Disaster Management (NDMO) Clusters with stakeholders and partners will now start planning on preparedness and response.

The 2024/2025 Cyclone Season Outlook was presented during the sixth session of the National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF-6), which ended yesterday. The forum was attended by members of the Vanuatu ENSO Committee and other stakeholders.


SOURCE: VANUATU DAILY POST